Dublin, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

934
FXUS61 KILN 061033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
633 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
into early evening in eastern parts of the area as a cold front
moves through the region. Dry conditions will return for the
remainder of the upcoming week as high pressure builds across
most of the United States. Near normal, to slightly below
normal, temperatures are on tap through the week with bountiful
sunshine.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clear conditions will prevail through daybreak, with just some
very patchy river valley fog possible along the OH Rvr. Temps
will only dip into the lower 60s near/W of I-75 but should
bottom out in the lower 50s in central OH through NE KY.

The near term period is likely to offer the lone chance for any
real/impactful weather through the entirety of this upcoming week,
and even so, the storm chances are expected to be confined to a
relatively small spatial/temporal scale late this afternoon into
early evening. A fairly strong front will progress through the
region during the day today, with good LL moisture pooling ahead
of it, characterized by sfc dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s.
The front should be very close to, and approximately parallel
to, the I-71 corridor by about 20z, where CI is expected to
evolve immediately along/ahead of the SE-advancing frontal
boundary by 21z. As such, SHRA/TSRA chances should be highest E
of I-71 (especially into central/south-central OH and NE KY)
into very late afternoon/early evening, with an uptick in
development by 21z across the ESE third/quarter of the ILN FA.
These storms will be forming in an environment characterized by
a sufficient (albeit narrow) corridor of richer LL moisture
(contributing to moderate instby on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg), with seasonably strong LL/deep-layer speed shear/wind
fields and supportive ML lapse rates (~7C) as well. So... there
should be at least /some/ organization to the storms along the
leading edge of the front, with potential for a strong to severe
storm or two into late afternoon. The main uncertainty at this
juncture is just how quickly (how far W) CI occurs and whether
the storms/front move out of the local area too quickly before
storm maturation/peak intensity. Nevertheless, at this juncture,
the conditional local severe threat would likely be maximized
within a corridor from Licking to Scioto Counties in OH and
points to the SE (particularly Licking, Fairfield, and Hocking).
This low-end severe potential should be most pronounced between
about 21z-00z before the front (and the storms) move out of the
ILN FA further into the evening. At this juncture, will
maintain mention of a few strong to severe storms in the HWO
within the aforementioned areas, although confidence in severe
storms locally is still somewhat low.

Temps today will be quite warm by seasonal standards, into the
lower to mid 80s for many spots. However, there will be a
plateauing, or even a few degree drop, by late afternoon in the
post-frontal environment near/W of I-71, with temps dipping
into the upper 70s for the NW third or so of the ILN FA by/past
21z.

The other item of note for today is going to be the /very/ dry
air filtering in from the NW in the post-frontal environment,
which will arrive in parts of WC OH and EC IN by 21z or so.
This dry air will be spilling in amidst some gusty NW winds on
the order of ~25 kts, with RH values expected to dip below 25%
for several hours in these areas late afternoon into early
evening. This will create elevated fire weather conditions in
these areas, so will also include this mention in the HWO and
issue an SPS to highlight/message this potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The aforementioned storm threat should linger locally through
about 00-01z before the activity pushes off to the SE through
the remainder of the evening/overnight. This will yield to dry
conditions area-wide of the remainder of the short term period
as drier air and high pressure settle into the region for the
start of the workweek. NW winds this evening will subside and go
more northerly overnight, with mainly clear skies expected.
This will allow for temps to dip into the mid to upper 40s area-
wide by Monday.

There may be a few clouds in the N by daybreak Monday, with some
afternoon Cu possible as well. However, there is quite a bit of
dry air in the profile, so coverage may be limited to only a few
Cu by the afternoon as highs top out in the upper 60s... a few
degrees below seasonal norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A steady state is in store through Thursday night under the
influence of a large high pressure system. Highs near 70 and lows in
the lower 40s under generally clear skies will be the norm.

Friday will see the axis of the high pass to the east, and return
flow will be accompanied with a slight rise in H5 heights to see a
slight bump in highs to the lower 70s. Overnight lows will range
from 50 in the northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast. Stronger
southwest wind on Saturday will offset a steady or slight drop in
upper heights, with highs warming to the mid 70s and lows ranging 2-
3 degrees on either side of 50.

The tail end of the forecast on day 7 looks to have low pressure
track northeast along a stationary front in northern Ohio. Cloud
cover will drop highs a little, into the lower 70s. A chance of rain
is also warranted at this time, but a good amount of leeway should
be given to temps and the mass fields this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mostly clear skies should be maintained through the first few
hours of the TAF period.

The main item of interest through the TAF period is going to be
the progression of a somewhat sharp front through the area
during the afternoon into early evening, which may yield some
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA in central OH for KCMH/KLCK between about
21z-23z or so. Cannot completely rule out some stray activity
extending a bit further to the SW toward KILN during the same
time frame, but have maintained a dry fcst at the site for now.
Of course, some brief/sudden VSBY reductions will be possible in
the SHRA/TSRA, but uncertainties regarding timing and spatial
extent have inhibited inclusion in any TEMPO groups for now. The
front will be accompanied by a somewhat narrow VFR Cu field,
but skies should trend clearer fairly quickly by 00z once again
in the post-frontal environment.

The approach, and subsequent passage, of the front will yield a
steady increase in the winds by mid morning through early
afternoon. Light southerly flow around 10kts early this morning
will go more out of the SW by 15z, increasing to around 15kts,
with gusts 20-25kts, by 18z just about everywhere. Winds will
gradually go more westerly by 21z and northwesterly by 00z
before subsiding toward the end of the period to less than
10kts.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...KC